Civil War or Religious War?

In yet another display of diplomatic genius, Bush and/or Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki snubbed each other by canceling two days of talks scheduled for yesterday and today. These meetings were replaced by a two hour breakfast meeting followed by a photo-op and controlled press conference. U.S.-Iraq summit abruptly canceled. The real reasons for this abrupt change in plans are unclear. Still, we have learned much about the power structure in Iraq.

One contributing factor to this historic faux pas was the leak of White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley'’s memo questioning Maliki'’s ability and/or desire to stem the Iraqi Muslim Civil War. Hadley may be right to ask if Maliki is on our team. A recent British Documentary The Death Squads graphically illustrates how entwined the Shiite death squads and the Iraqi Police have become. These death squads attack, torture, and kill Sunnis on an almost daily basis. The Sunnis respond in a vicious "eye for an eye" struggle that has the American Military caught in the middle.

On the other hand, Maliki has a right to question the Bush administration's competence and commitment. Let us never forget that we started this war. Colin Powell said it all when he stated "If we break it, we own it." Hadley's leaked memo is just another example of a Bush administration official denying accountability and passing the buck.

Hadley's ill timed memo does not let al-Maliki off the hook. He may have cut his meetings with Bush short in an effort to appease Shiite ministers and legislators loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. These politicians have been boycotting their offices in protest of Maliki's meeting with Bush. They just announced some of their conditions for returning to work. These conditions include "increase in the number of well-trained Iraqi security forces, and the government must provide more electricity, gas and other basic services..." Does this sound like they think we got into this war with "no plan for winning the peace"?

The Sunni Iraqi Vice President and Deputy Prime Minister have joined the voices critical of Maliki. These Sunni leaders want collective decision making and some control over sectarian violence.

In the mean time, the Al-Qaeda in Iraq PR machine is getting in on the act. They just issued a communique denouncing King Abdullah II and various Iraqi Sunni leaders for meeting with the Jordan's king.

Maliki is not stupid. He knows what is going on. The Shiite's are the majority population. They will likely win a war of attrition. They also are looking for payback after all the years under Saddam's rule. To blame this conflict on 'terrorists' or 'Islamo Facists' is absurd. This is not even a typical civil war. This has become a religious war. This war is beginning to look like it has far more in common with the Christian Reformation period of Catholic and Protestant bloodshed across Europe. What will happen to Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Iran if this war spills over the Iraqi borders?

We have now been in Iraq longer than we fought World War II. How in the hell are we going to get out of this mess?

Cross-posted at: Bring It On!

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